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M9480099.TXT
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1994-08-09
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Document 0099
DOCN M9480099
TI The impact of lengthening AIDS reporting delays and uncertainty about
underreporting on incidence trends and projections.
DT 9410
AU Bacchetti P; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University
of; California, San Francisco 94143-0840.
SO J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 1994 Aug;7(8):860-5. Unique Identifier :
AIDSLINE MED/94293168
AB This article extends existing methods for estimating reporting delays to
allow nonparametric estimation of how delays are changing over time.
Also implemented are refinements to estimate calendar month effects and
to improve the accuracy of trend estimates by focusing on delays of > 6
months. Applying the method to 1987-definition adult and adolescent AIDS
cases reported by June 1992 shows strong evidence for a nonlinear trend
toward longer delays among cases diagnosed more recently and for slower
reporting of cases diagnosed in January and June of each year. Combining
estimated reporting delay corrections with the possibility of increasing
underreporting produces a 14-16% higher estimated incidence by December
1991 and a 19-24% higher projected incidence by December 1993 than using
the delay corrections provided with the public information AIDS data and
assuming constant underreporting rates.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY Adolescence Adult
*Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.) Epidemiology/*TRENDS
*Forecasting Human Incidence *Population Surveillance Support, U.S.
Gov't, P.H.S. Time Factors United States/EPIDEMIOLOGY JOURNAL ARTICLE
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).